Introduction
In May, 2022 World Economic Forum in Davos two Western nonagenerians Henry Kissinger and George Soros contradicted each other on how to tackle Russia in Ukraine. While Kissinger asked West not to antagonize with Russia too much, he urged Ukraine to give up lands to Russia and make peace. Soros on the other hand told about importance to defeat Putin led Russia and Xi led China to save the Western values.
Let us try to analyze the reasons of this contradiction between Kissinger and Soros. For this we have to first understand the US Power Structure.
There are four pillars in US Power structure:
1. Profit making Capitalists:
They are divided into two parts:
a) Profit comes mainly from Global Market.
b) Profit comes mainly from Domestic Market i.e. USA.
2. Military & Intelligence:
They can be divided into four parts again:
a) Direct Military and non Military employees of Pentagon.
b) Direct spy and non spy employees of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
c) Capitalists getting orders of weapons and technology production from Pentagon.
d) N.G.O.s and Universities getting funds for creating hybrid wars and research related to them by CIA.
3. Traditional Society
Traditional mainly constitute those influential people who are guided by certain values like support for traditional family, patriotism, preference for family owned small and medium businesses, anti-migrants, sometimes pro white race, right to the use of guns for self defense, etc. In general they are Republican supporters though there can be some exceptions. Rise of Trump clearly indicates deep division in this pillar and their grievances against US Authority.
4. Open Society
Open Society constitute those people who support state enforced women empowerment, LGBT rights, individualism, rights of minorities, right to abortion for woman, rights of migrants, working class people's rights, anti gun laws, etc. In general they are Democrat supporters. Rise of Bernie Sanders surely shows these people to be deeply divided between class line and non-class line (mainly women, non white American minorities and migrant issues). But their division is less prominent as revealed from the fact that Democrat Party Authority had been able to prevent Sanders from becoming President candidate for two successive times.
It is to be remembered that a section of profit making capitalists are in the bracket of (2.c) i.e. capitalists getting orders of weapons and technology production from Pentagon. e.g. Starlink is said to be prepared by Tesla on order of Pentagon despite the fact that there is little commercial market for it. Starlink internet is said to be of great help for Ukrainians fighting against Russians.
Similarly, a section of the profit making capitalists donate to N.G.O.s and Universities linked to CIA as mentioned in (2.d).
Profit making Capitalists
US capitalists are gradually depending more and more on global market as USA's share of global GDP came down from 36% in 1970 to 24% in 2021. Similarly, USA, EU and Japan's share of global GDP taken together has fallen from 67% in 1970 to 46% in 2021. So these global capital rooted in USA is gradually becoming more dependent on Emerging Economies especially China whose share of global GDP rose from mere 3% in 1970 to 19% in 2021. China has now world's largest retail market, most efficient and biggest labor market and a growing financial market. US capital does not want to get ousted from Chinese markets. So they want good relations between China and USA. They also appreciate the role of Russia in global commodity supply chain especially oil, gas and wheat markets. Global capital thinks about realigning global order where China and Russia will get their rightful places. Henry Kissinger represents this lobby and openly supports red line deal between USA and China while asking Ukraine to give up lands to Russia to make peace. He warns that sanctions on Russia will result in high inflation in West which will make things politically unmanageable.
Capitalists making profits from mainly US market wants more protection from foreign competition and so they started trade war with China in 2017 under presidency of Trump. Trade war proved to be disaster for USA as trade deficit with China rose instead of going down. USA is also facing high inflation due to sanctions on Russia at the moment and so new President Biden is thinking about ending tariffs on Chinese goods in reduce inflationary pressure. But USA is still very much into Technology war with China as USA wants to maintain its edge in high tech. US Congress is pressing for a bill to be passed that limits investment in China's high-tech sector.
Military & Intelligence
Pentagon recently lost prestige due to loss in Iraq and Afghanistan wars and also because of mismanaged withdrawal from Afghanistan. Moreover, it was also clear that while Pentagon took money from US government for training 300,000 Afghan security personnel, in reality there were just 75,000. So huge corruption can be traced from this single event. Recently Pentagon's first Chief Software Officer Nicolas Chaillan resigned by saying USA has already lost AI fight to China and claimed that USA is investing too much in conventional old type military hardware and not new type military assets like AI, Robotics, etc. It is to be noted that USA has to bear huge cost of military and non military personnel employed in overseas bases pushing the cost too high. Former President Trump repeatedly said that Pentagon's overseas bases grabs a huge share of US military spending. It is to be noted that Information Technology and Innovation Foundation recently said that China raised its share in advanced technology industries from 4% in 1995 to 21.5% in 2018. For USA it fell from 24% in 1995 to 22.5% in 2018. Better cooperation between government and industries is thought to be the major reason why China is moving ahead of USA in advanced technologies. This rapidly changing scene in advanced technologies have forced USA to launch a technology war with China to prevent the latter's high tech development or at least to slow the pace of development. But again this means loss of profit for US based capitalists who are continuously lured by China through excellent Intellectual Property Rights and big market. So Pentagon being defeated in Iraq-Afghanistan, suspected of corruption and wastage of resources got sidelined by US administration. Blinken had clearly said that USA would not use military to bring in democracy to any country in the world in future. Pentagon is not ready to take on Russia or China in a direct war as such a war will be non manageable. Pentagon only wants to preserve its allotment of resources and hence wants to linger on to the overseas bases without any direct war.
Blinken makes it clear that US will use its intelligence to bring in regime change in the name of bringing democracy throughout the world. In the Arab Spring many suspected the role of CIA in nurturing different democracy seeking elements like Muslim Brotherhood and Free Syrian Army. Arab Spring only brought chaos to Arab world with very little gain if any for USA. But CIA is thought to have scored excellently in Ukraine's regime change operation of 2014. CIA is thought to have used the same method in Hong Kong, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Belarus but failed. After Russia started military operation in Ukraine it was clear that CIA was able to create hardcore anti Russian militia groups with not only Ukrainians but also many foreigners. It is noteworthy that CIA is most successful in East Europe till now and this has elevated the status of the lobby working for CIA in that region considerably. 91 years old billionaire George Soros, a US citizen of Hungarian Jew origin is thought to be most important player working in East Europe since 1980s. He was often believed to be the mastermind for bringing in Afro-Asian refugees during Syrian war into Europe. We will later read his ideology in this piece.
Traditional Society
Traditional values are believed to have been alienated from mainstream US ruling class. The Traditional Society often have deep desire to fight China by allying with Russia but several hindrances are preventing this from happening. Firstly, Russia has little reason to be skeptical about China as the later has little reason or power to do damage to Russia while Russia has every reason to be afraid of USA which has still huge power and reason to do damage to Russia. Secondly, Russian military industrial complex and large stock of nukes make Russia more immediate danger to US led world order than China. Thirdly, capitalist lobby finds Russia economically too small when compared to China. Fourthly, the Soros lobby being deeply rooted in East Europe is more inclined to color Russia as real enemy. The Soros lobby use anti-Russian sentiments to make itself popular in the region. Former President Trump faced these challenges when he tried to make US-Russian relations better.
Traditional values are also under attack from Open Society who are making mass protests against gun violence, abortion, white racism, etc. Hence Traditional Society though wants to preserve US hegemony has very little say at the moment.
Open Society
The present Open Society values started taking its shape after 1960s when sex revolution started and the popularity of class politics got reduced significantly. Post World War II period saw tremendous popularity of Marxist Leninist class politics and also anti-colonial politics. In late 1960s, things started to change. Sex and identity politics became mainstream. Kissinger's decolonization policy after loss of Vietnam War made anti-Western policies impotent as well by 1970s. The stagflation of 1970s weakened Western working class bargaining power significantly. In 1980s, socialist China with 1 billion labor market opened up to the global economy reducing global prices to unimaginable levels. Fall of Socialist Block was the last nail in the coffin of class politics. It is during this time that anti Marxist philosophers like Foucault and Karl Popper gained popularity. Their thinking greatly shaped today's Open Society values. In 1990s and up to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, these values had no competitor. But things began to change in 2010s. Their values failed to penetrate the Islamic societies. Socialist China made a comeback with Marxist-Leninist ideology of development. Russia came forward with Eurasianism and Fourth Political Theory. Open Society values failed to overwhelm China, Russia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Belarus despite repeated attempts in 2010s. It is also said that Russian support for several traditional values have made Open Society aware of the danger of Russia. So this Open Society is most determined to fight Russia and China and preserve US led world order.
Soros led Open Society vs Kissinger led Global Capital
It must be remembered that George Soros is deeply influenced by Karl Popper. Popper was motivated to counter Marxism Leninism. He said human society's history cannot be predicted because every event is discrete and ontologically distinct unlike solar system which is stationary and repetitive. So Marxist Leninist historical predictions are not scientific. Popper concluded that transforming a society based on Marxist line of predictions through state would mean a huge misallocation of resources resulting in many unintended consequences which will be too big to counter or mitigate. The best option is to create an Open Society which can go for small creative social transformations using limited energy and its unintended consequences can be countered or mitigated as they are not that big. Individual creativity is very important because to solve problems humans must go beyond existing knowledge and rely on imaginations. Popper defined Open Society as association of free individuals respecting each others' rights to think and act creatively within the framework of mutual protection supplied by state. Hence for Popper, Open Society needs a state for protection of its values from other societies. This is where Open Society cherishes the role of US hegemony since 1990s in propagating and protecting the Open Society values. Now since US Hegemony is under attack from rising China and resurgent Russia, the Open Society finds it is their duty to fight for US Hegemony. Open Society led by Soros believes that if US Hegemony is defeated by Multi Polar World Order, their values will be in grave crisis as Popper believes that such values cannot thrive or survive without state protection. So Soros has said that Ukraine must be given all help to defeat Russia and dethrone Putin. Soros also asked for continuous pressure against Xi Jinping led China.
99 year old Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor was of German Jew origin. He even took part in World War II. He is credited with USA's rebuilding of relationships with China. He can be said to be the most important person in US China international relations. So he has voiced repeatedly for red line deal between China and USA where both will get their rightful places. Naturally he is now the voice of global capital who believes that US share in global economy has become too small to continue a Unipolar world order. Kissinger has given the green signal for Multi-polar world order in Davos in May, 2022 when he asked Ukraine to give up land to Russia to make peace. Kissinger has repeatedly said that USSR was a great technology power and military power but never an economic power. So Cold War with USSR never resulted in too much economic sacrifice for West. But China is not only a great technology power and military power but also an economic power house. So Cold War with China will result in huge economic loss for West. Hence Cold War 2.0 with China must be scrapped and USA-China must make agreement immediately where both will look after the others' concerns.
So it is clear now that global capital and Open Society are on opposite sides on the issue of China and Russia. But the list of differences may actually grow. The coming low birth crisis is also becoming a zone of contention between the two. While global capital is getting more and more concerned about low birth rates across the world resulting in more aged people and less working youths, Open Society is spreading the message of feminism and LGBT with even more vigor.
Conclusion
Open Society was created in late 1960s and its popularity rose during 1970s to 2010s. It was thought to be most instrumental in defeating the ideology of class struggle and Marxism Leninism. Marxism Leninism itself took birth in late 1910s and it grew between 1920s and 1960s but it got decimated between 1970s and 1980s. Open Society saw its best says when it was in symbiotic relation with global capital which needed more consumers, more migrants and hence supported more feminism. Global capital was mainly dependent on Western markets and hence kept supporting US Hegemony. But in 2022 the situation has changed. Global capital based in USA needs Chinese market and feminism is putting downward pressure on number of consumers and workers. So in the coming days, Open Society will not get support from global capital. Open Society is still living in the last decades of 20th century and is failing to register the change that has taken place in the society since then. Open Society values may face similar fate like class struggle in the next two decades and some new Movement can take its place.
