Past Prediction 1: China will win Trade War
Many have predicted before China has no clue how to answer Trump's trade war. I stood firmly by the fact that China is too large economically and hence buying less from China will be too costly for USA too endure. Today everybody can see inflation in USA. In fact inflation started due to Trump era tariff led policies. It got momentum during expansionary monetary policies of Covid era. Finally Russian military intervention inside Ukraine and sanctions on Russia that followed were the last straw on the camel's back. Russia and Ukraine are important nodes in global commodity supply chain (like oil, wheat) and this has fuelled inflation in West to record levels. In fact, many are predicting recessions in USA soon.
Past Prediction 2: USA & Russia cannot come to Detente
Many especially Indian think thanks have predicted in the past that USA will be forced to reduce enmity with Russia and will concentrate against China. This is also proved wrong. I kept saying repeatedly that Kissinger has pointed out that China is a big economy and so sanctioning China will mean loss of world's best labor market, largest retail market and highest growing financial market. Western capitalists will never accept this. China has competitive advantage in many sectors like infrastructure and China is the largest bilateral trading partner of most countries in the world. So USA cannot contain China and has to accept Chinese domination in its own backyard. Russia on the other hand is a small economy and hence can be ignored by Western capitalists and hence Western politicians can indeed sanction Russia. At the same time, Russia is too powerful militarily to be overlooked. Fear about Russian military will force most of East Europe to move towards USA. Now USA is forming its largest military base in Poland. So anybody hoping for USA Russia detente has been proven incorrect.
Past Prediction 3: Russia has to undertake Military Operation inside Ukraine & only Russian speaking Areas will be taken by Russia
Many also predicted that Russia will not move inside Ukraine and many predicted that Russia will occupy entire Ukraine. I predicted that Russia surely send military inside Ukraine as Russia will never get any detente from USA implying Minsk Accord will never be implemented. Moreover, I predicted that Russia will take control of Russian speaking areas of Ukraine only and will avoid occupying Ukrainian speaking areas. This is because to dominate areas military needs local population's support. Russia will not get popular support in Ukrainian speaking areas and so will avoid occupying them. Russian speakers are more likely to support Russian ground troops and hence Russian speaking areas can be controlled easily. Russia in fact started special military operation inside Ukraine claiming to liberate the Russian speaking Donbas region who were fighting for separate countries from Ukraine since last 8 years. After military operation began, it became clear that Russian military was able to hold on to military gains in Ukrainian speaking areas while able to retain Russian speaking Southern and Eastern part of Ukraine.
Iran's weakness
Iran again cannot bargain much between China and USA because powerful Saudi Arabia and Israel lobby inside USA treats Iran an adversary. Saudi and Israel move towards China and Russia whenever USA tries to reduce contradictions with Iran. This forces USA to take anti Iran stand. Ukraine war forced Russia to divert many of its military resources from Syria and this gave Iran supported militia an opportunity to occupy more areas of Syria. But this will push Saudi and Israel more towards USA and away from Russia.
Turkiye Emerges as the Most Successful Bargainer
Turkiye on the other hand is in a very suitable position to bargain from all sides. Turkiye used electoral democracy supporting Islamists like Muslim Brotherhood against Arab rulers of Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Syria during Arab Spring. This enraged Arab elites. Finally Turkiye supported Islamists got resistance from Arabs, Iranians and Russians in Syria. Then Turkiye changed policies and formed alliance with Iran and Russia to resist Kurdish separatist movement within Turkiye. While changing policies, coup was plotted by those who wanted Turkiye to keep supporting Islamists. After defeating the coup plotters Turkiye under Erdogan brilliantly resisted Kurdish in Syria and Iraq by allying with Iran and Russia. Then Erdogan neutralized Russia and successfully helped Azerbaijan against Armenia in war. Turkiye made drones made a huge impact in that war. Turkiye even consolidated its hold Libya, but lost Egypt, Sudan and Tunisia. It even bought S-400 from Russia ignoring US threat of sanctions. Using Russia Ukraine war, Turkiye presented itself as the only neutral country whom both warring sides will listen to. Finally when Finland and Sweden wanted to join NATO, Turkiye opposed their inclusion on ground that these two countries support Kurdish separatists. Finland and Sweden were forced to handover Kurdish separatists working inside their country to Turkiye. Even USA uplifted sanctions on Turkiye for buying S-400 and got ready to sell F-16 jet fighters to the same. Turkiye is emerging as the most successful bargainer in the Multi Polar world. Here also my prediction proved to be correct over those who kept predicting that Turkiye is pro West. Turkiye will never side West or China-Russia-Iran, but will keep bargaining more and more from both sides.
Saudi will use Global Oil Price to bargain Maximum between USA and Russia
Another power is oil king Saudi Arabia. Russia is earning huge oil revenue making Western sanctions completely impotent only because Saudi has decided not to raise oil production and reduce oil price. USA has till now failed to persuade Saudi to reduce oil price. USA is preparing to give new weapon systems to Saudi to counter Iran and in return seek reducing oil price. If Saudi keeps global oil price high for a year, Russia will win convincingly in Ukraine and USA's reputation will be dampened. So USA will accept Saudi's policies like oil for yuan while keep helping Saudi militarily against Iran and Yemeni Houthi rebels. Saudi will also push Russia to counter Iran inside Syria.
India as Messiah for both USA and Russia-Iran
Iran and Russia are forced to ally with China where the former two have little bargaining power. China is a very big economy (largest economy in PPP and second largest economy in nominal terms). Iran and Russia together have no chance to bargain with China if USA is not willing to reduce enmity with them. So Iran and Russia imagine India as a potential player who can be brought into anti western front. This will create ideal condition where Iran and Russia can bargain between China and India. A section of USA and West think India having a big population like China and fourth strongest military in the world can help to contain China. Some feel Indian labor is cheaper than Chinese and so global supply chain can be gradually shifted to India from China. These people forget that to become competitive in global economy a country needs a perfect combination of labor price, labor productivity, political stability and infrastructure. Only cheap labor is never enough to make a country victorious in global supply chain. In reality, India has inefficient management and laborers, weak infrastructure and fragile political stability due to diversities in geography, religion and language.
New Prediction 1: India to Face Internal & External Pressures in the Next Ten Years
In this multi polar system, there are two stars with light of their own: China and USA. It means only these two are economic powers, technology powers and military powers. Rest all including Russia Turkiye Iran India France UK and Germany are lighted by light of USA or China or both. Among these planets only India has the potential to become a star thanks to its large population and big coastline which helps its navy to dominate Indian Ocean at a minimum cost. But to become a star India needs to develop infrastructure, reform its economy to make it efficient and maintain political stability simultaneously. But recent farmers' protest movements, anti land acquisition movements, etc. have shown that reforming economy and creating infrastructure are creating lot of political instability. India is too much diverse and will always feel heavy pain during reforms. Indian think thanks advice India government to endure pain for next ten years after which it will become a 10 trillion US Dollar economy and then no external or internal threat can derail it anymore. China knows this Indian strategy and will definitely prepare itself to prevent another start from coming in its own neighborhood. It is also doubtful that USA will allow a third star to contain the second star to remain as the sole star. Next ten years will be crucial for India as it will face external and pressures simultaneously.
New Prediction 2: A Significant Section of Western Capitalist will take Actions against Hyper Liberalism
Western capitalists know that China is a big economy to be sanctioned and Russia has important role in global commodity market like oil gas wheat and fertilizers. But hyper liberals are terming China and Russia authoritarian and want to fight with them. Similarly China's huge productive cheap labor has now become quite expensive and there is no new country which can take China's role. With Chinese wage rate rising, Western working class will be able to bargain more vis-a-vis Western capitalist class. So Global economy has entered a new phase of higher inflation. Low birth crisis has further aggravated the situation as it means less workers and less consumers. So a section of Western capitalists will want women to breed more and make policies against feminism which will be disliked by hyper liberals. To counter hyper liberals, this section of Western capitalists may end up supporting conservatives which can create social instability in West especially in USA.
