West tried to recreate a pre-Soviet world order just after Soviet Union collapsed in 1990s. Civilizing mission (bringing multi party democracy) in Iraq and Afghanistan failed miserably. By 2010s, it wass clear that the "end of history" has given way to "thucedydes trap" between rising China and declining USA.
For Russia Iran Turkey this was opportunity for extending their own influence. Thus USA as protector of old order is finding itself in a difficult situation where it has to take on China, Russia, Turkey, Iran simulteneously. EU, Arabs and Israel will ensure that USA has to take on Russia Turkey and Iran. So USA cannot lure them against China too.
Arabs, ASEAN, Latin America and Africa will bargain hard between both sides and will never take any stand against China. Even Germany France and hence EU have said they are not willing to ban China.
Only India being a big neighbor of China with a large military and economy will go against China. But this ensures that smaller South Asian neighbors like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal will need China.
So what remains in USA's anti China alliance is India, Japan (it hurts when one has to take orders from ex servants), Australia+Lithuania etc (small white countries who love to say west/white rules the rest and USA hegemony is the only thing they can vaunt about).
Australia is small, Japan is stagnant and so China has to take down India only to establish itself in Asia.
Can USA use India to engage China in a long war like it is using Ukraine against Russia? India will try to gain technology, market and investment from USA in the name of fighting China after 30 years. But what will happen to USA if India really grows like China? Chinese share in global GDP grew from 2% in 1980 to 19% in 2022 and USA fell from 36% to 24% as a result. If in next 30 years, India's share of global GDP rose from 3.5% in 2022 to 15% in 2050 then where will USA share of global GDP go? Probably 10% even in most optimistic measures. For USA it means birth of one more competitor and more loss of economic influence. USA cannot afford to help make another new competitor (India) to fight the present competitor (China).
USA knows China 's potential growth rate for next 10 to 15 years will be three times more than it's own. Potential growth rate for China in next 10 to 15 years is 5% to 6% and for USA its 1.5% to 2%. USA will try to reduce real growth rate of China by denying the later the highest value technologies and force Western companies to relocate investment from China to other countries. Though it will result in slowdown in innovation and higher inflation, hence higher interest rate and hence reduced global growth. It will also mean flight of US Dollar from many third world countries forcing them to use other currencies ike Chinese Yuan in trade.
Mexico Vietnam Bangladesh Phillipines Malaysia may benefit from supply chain relocation from China. But India won't. Why? Because USA won't want India to grow too much but the above said countries won't pose any danger. Smaller countries with smaller potential GDP will not be able to reduce US economic influence unlike India or China. China has already grown and there is no reason for USA to let India grow as well.
Negative growth of population and labor force in China will be another thing that USA will count on. China will try to negate this weakness by improving quality of labor in the short run. In the long run, China has to improve birth rate about which the author is not very optimistic.
USA will want to use India to force China into a prolonged war and India will want to milk USA's technology. market, investment in the name of fighting China. So USA and India won't be able to form a common ground for alliance against China.
Actually neither USA nor China will want to see emergence of a third competitor. Both will end up cooperating to ensure that no third competitor emerges. Here comes the Grand Master Plan of Reconfiguration of India. If the plan succeeds, China will have no potential threat in its backyard while USA will get huge labor force divided into many nation states to relocate supply chain from China and thus reduce China's long term growth momentum and global economic influence.
