[THIS IS MY PREDICTION SEVEN YEARS AGO WHEN TRUMP STARTED TRADE WAR: https://qutnyti.wordpress.com/2018/05/20/trumps-trade-war-is-destined-to-end-the-us-hegemony/ ]

The deal will mainly be about sharing the global influence between China, USA and in some cases Russia. This deal will try to save US Dollar's share in Global Reserve Currencies, while allowing more room for Chinese Yuan at the cost of Euro, Yen, Pound.

In the eyes of the United States, there are mainly six types of countries. The first category is allies, such as Israel, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, etc.; The second category is occupied countries, such as Japan and South Korea; The third category is quasi-allies, such as some countries in Europe, the Philippines in Asia, South Africa in Africa, and Brazil in the Americas. The fourth category is countries with strategic cooperation, such as Saudi Arabia, India, Turkey, Egypt, etc.; The fifth category is some weak countries that can be bullied by it at will; The sixth category is countries that are hostile to the United States, but their overall strength is indeed far behind, such as Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea and other countries. These five types of countries can only rely on, flatter, deal with, or succumb to the diplomatic pressure of the United States. The only exceptions are Russia and China. Relying on its strategic weapons and military strength, Russia often confronts the United States tit for tat, but it has never directly reprimanded the Americans diplomatically. China, on the other hand, has a comprehensive ability to resist pressure due to the enhancement of its political, military, economic, technological and other comprehensive strengths. It is also the first country to directly reprimand Americans on diplomatic occasions and draw red lines for Americans.

USA became sole Global Security Manager after World War II at the cost of British-Dutch-French-German-Japanese-Italian Colonial Order. USSR was given Eastern Europe only. Soon Cold War started when USSR kept changing and influencing Global South governments. USSR won big by placing Communist Governments in China and Indo-China.

Contradiction between USSR and China (because of USSR leadership's decision to change Communist Party from Workers' Party to Mass Party) forced USSR to make Nationalist Socialist Governments of India, Egypt, Syria as main allies. Between 1971 and 1974, Nixon-Kissinger and Brezhnev-Andropov tried to reach a Detente. USA was given free will in South America, North America, West Europe, Oceania, South East Asia. USSR was allowed to operate freely in East Europe, South Asia, (Central Asia was then within USSR) and most of Africa. On China question, USA and USSR both accepted China as a separate power. And hence in East Asia China accepted US domination over Japan and South Korea. In West Asia, USSR was allowed to dominate Syria, Yemen while USA was allowed to dominate Gulf Arab. Saudi kept oil price high which boosted USSR's foreign exchange earnings from oil sale.

In USA-USSR Detente, USA kept with itself developed economies and relatively developed countries of Global South too. USSR chose undeveloped regions for domination. This arrangement grew out partly because richer regions wanted US Market and luxury goods while Poorer countries still needed USSR's infrastructural investments and imports and also sometimes forced Modernization. It is Islamic Revolution in Iran in Feb, 1979 that broke the Detente as it shifted Arab allies more towards USA (to counter Islamic Revolution in Arab countries) which helped USA to dictate Global Oil prices hurting USSR's foreign exchange earnings a lot. The end of Detente started Afganistan war of USSR too.

So in 1970s, Kissinger recommended Detente with USSR by accepting the fact that decolonization is the basic demand of Global South and whenever USA wanted to uphold European colonial legacy, National sentiment of Global South was hurt and USSR could easily exploit the situation through domestic communists. Moreover Global South countries wanted to become economically sovereign which US must accept. While in the initial years of industrial development, cheap USSR infrastructure will be helpful but soon after initial infrastructure development Global South will need US market, goods and technology. So allowing USSR to dominate poorest parts of Global South was not bad.

In 2018, Kissinger recommended Red Line Deal between China & USA. Kissinger opined that China must be allowed to follow it's own development path (socialism with market & meritocracy) and control its surrounding regions. US must keep it's own influence zone and both won't cross red line set by themselves in every zone. Kissinger further stressed that USSR was a great technology power and military power but economically USSR was merely 40% of US GDP when measured in PPP (kind). But China is a great in all three fronts and its GDP is 30% more than US GDP when measured in PPP. Since Chinese productivity is low compared to US, the former has more room to expand. So to keep peace, USA must accept Chinese domination in China's neighborhood. It will also help to increase use of Chinese Yuan which will appreciate Yuan and help China absorb more goods and capital from abroad raising global demand and output level. It must be remembered that Chinese military is too powerful for USA to forcefully appreciate Chinese Yuan like it did to Japan & Germany in 1980s.

Trump in his first term tried his best to block high tech of USA from going to China. Biden continued the policy. But such blockade only has accelerated Chinese high tech growth. Trade War for seven years has only raised Chinese Trade Surplus to record high USD 1 trn. So trade war and tech war are not causing much harm to China. So making red line deal is the only way out.

For US government primary concern is to keep its financial (asset trading) market stay afloat which is possible only if US Dollar domination in currency market continues. But if USA quietly allows the rise in use of Chinese Yuan how can use of US Dollar to remain stable. Answer lies in giving Yuan more role at the cost of Euro. Since US Dollar is still 59% of Global Reserve while 27% for Euro and 3% for Yuan, if Euro is decimated then Dollar and Yuan both can gain significantly. Also destroying EU high tech industries will give China more market of high tech industries. We are already watching EU industries dying out due to inflation (resulting from not using cheaper Russian oil) and China is gaining ground in high tech sector at the cost of EU. Russia Ukraine war severely weakened Euro too. UK Pound and Japanese Yen will loss too. EU will be more dependent on USA. China will dominate South Korea and Japan economically but will politically not cross red line introduced by USA. Similarly USA will dominate Latin America economically but will not cross political red line set by China. South East Asia and Central Asia will be under Chinese influence. Russia's status as separate power will be accepted. Russian red line in East Europe and Central Asia will be accepted by China and USA.

South Asia, West Asia and Africa: In these regions the division of influence is still not clear. In South Asia, Indian regional hegemony is losing out to China already. So India will be very much against China US Red Line deal. India may want a status like Russia but China will be unwilling to allow a regional hegemony in both north (Russia) and south (India). Moreover, India's population is too big and it can become a challenger to China in future. Russia is demographically too small to become equal of China. So China will want to dismantle the Indian hegemony while happily give Russia important status. For USA, India has proven itself to be too weak and very little motivated to counter China. So India is of little use for USA as well. In fact, ending Indian hegemony and even balkanization of India is something that may become an integral part of the Red Line deal. When Trump says that he has read that Indo Bangla conflict is going on for hundreds of years, it is clear that US state is now recognizinf the fact that Bangla vs Hindi geopolitical clash is age old and so is the boundary. It means USA knows Indo Bangla boundary is not permanent. It points to the fact that Balkanization of India is very much on board for USA. 

Iran may desire to become hegemony of west Asia but it's power is too limited. In Africa there is no hegemony or wannabe hegemony. Russia and Turkiye have shown interest in Africa but they are too small to challenge the interest of China or USA. Both are hoped to work under China and or US influence.