Ukraine's TFR is 1.3, so their pool of young male is very low. That's why they can't organize insurgency, resistance like Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, Palestine etc. If they lose their significant chunk of male population, they are doomed.
Meanwhile ethnic Russians too have very low birth rate. So even they won't have adequate manpower for area domination.
That's why they have become increasingly dependent upon Chechen battalions for the purpose of area domination. This trend will accelerate in future.
The population share of ethnic Russians is dwindling in Russia and share of Chechens, Ingush, Tatars, Dagestani, Bakshirs etc are increasing. So in future Russia will also be more dependent upon these population groups for manpower.
In modern warfare, huge manpower is not required for military actions. Military engagements are increasingly dependent upon new technologies, machineries rather than manpower. But manpower is the key for area domination. Without huge manpower, area domination is not possible.
Manpower also required for organizing insurgencies. And for that high fertility rate is essential to bear the casualties. Without the population being young and warlike, organizing long term insurgency is impossible. Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen all have high fertility rate and their population stays war ready always. That’s why they can afford to bear high casualties yet still overcome their enemies.
Yet the myth and fairytale propagated about Ukrainian heroics as they(primarily pro-USA bloc) either don’t have understanding of this dynamics or it will completely shatter their established ideas which they have treated asreligion for too long. It also completely demolishes the Malthusian deity.
So, in conclusion, contrary to the mythos being conveyed in mainstream, their will no legendary Ukrainian valor and no Russian humiliation. At most, Russia will have to invest significant time and resource in area domination, that’s all. Rather, if this war is prolonged, it’s Ukraine that will struggle beyond imagination.
Author: Purandhar Khilji
