It is all about China
BRICS together is 26% of global GDP (nominal terms).
China alone is 19%.
India is mere 3.2%.
Russia and Brazil together make 3.8% with 1.9% for each.
So in BRICS only China matters economically. Nobody else matters.
USA + EU+ Japan = 24% + 17% + 7% = 48% of global GDP in nominal terms.
So West (USA + EU + Japan) is still 185% greater than BRICS economically.
Russia & Brazil
Russia is a military power while EU and Japan are not. We can see Russia's military victories in Ukrainian cities even though entire EU and USA have supported Ukraine with military aids. But it must be remembered that Russia and Brazil play important role in global commodity markets like oil, gas, food, fertilizers which keep inflation in USA, EU and Japan under control. This is why sanctioning Russia is causing so much inflation in Western economy.
Present Brazil government is not anti USA and not joining anti US front of Venezuela Cuba Bolivia Nicaragua Mexico Hondurus and Guatamala. Chile Peru Argentina Uruguay and now even Columbia have Left governments but they are trying to play neutral game between USA and China-Russia. If Left government comes to Brazil in the next election may be we will see a little more pro China-Russia policies.
India is against China
India is dependent on Russia only militarily while dependent on West politically and economically. Moreover, India has geopolitical struggle with China in South Asia. So India will use both West and Russia to strengthen itself against China. India will help Russia against West but will seek Western help against China. In fact, India dreams of a West-Russia alliance against China.
On matter of yuan internationalization, BRICS may be helpful as Russia and Brazil have already raised yuan's share in their respective foreign currency reserves significantly. Here again, India has raised yuan's share in its foreign currency reserve a little. India refused to trade with Russia in yuan. So it is clear that India will not help in yuan internationalization process. Moreover, countries like Israel despite not being in BRICS have raised yuan's share significantly in its foreign currency reserves. So BRICS is not needed at all for yuan internationalization.
Can BRICS+ make a difference?
Indonesia has 1.2% share of global GDP in nominal terms, Turkey has 0.8%, Iran has 0.3% and Mexico has 1.2%. Totally they will make BRICS+ 29.5% of global GDP in nominal terms.
Indonesia is important in global supply chain, Turkey caters mainly to EU market while Mexico caters mainly to US market. Iran is not that significant economically but has geo-political leverage in oil rich West Asia. Iran and Turkey have good quality defense industries too. But inclusion of Iran may dispel Saudi Arabia and Israel. So to BRICS+ may try to absorb Saudi too or just keep Iran out.
Comparison of Economic Power
China is surely the leader of the non West (USA + EU + Japan) world leaving India.
China has raised its share of global GDP from 3% in 1970 to 19% in 2021 in nominal measurement. Western share during the same time fell from 67% to 48%.
India's share rose insignificantly during the same period from 2% to 3.2%.
Latin America's share of global GDP hovered around 5% in forty years.
It is Middle-East whose share of global GDP doubled and rose from 1.9% to 3.7% between 1970 and 2021.
ASEAN countries of South-East Asia together raised their share from 1.2% to 3.7% during the last 40 years. So ASEAN countries have literally raised their share of global GDP by 3 times.
Indian Economic Growth is not Impressive
Hence we can safely conclude that in the non-Western world, India is the only country that is not ready to accept China's leadership. India will not abide by Western decisions only due to the fact that Russia supplies 70% of its military equipments. But India will ally with all Western schemes against China from QUAD to IPEP. Moreover, India's economic growth is not at all spectacular when compared to Middle East and ASEAN in the last forty years.
India is moving away from Globalization following USA
It is often said that Indian economy got derailed in 1980s due to closed economy during which its share in global GDP fell to 1% in 1990. In three decades it raised its share 3 times which is at least at par with ASEAN. But we must be aware that since Modi has become Prime Minister of India, the country is gradually moving towards Nehru type closed economy where domestic capitalists were getting protection from foreign competition. Recent Indian government's crackdown on Chinese apps and mobile companies deserve mention. Indian government's crackdown came upon Western companies like Master Card and Amazon as well. While Modi is talking about self-reliance and Make in India, Xi is calling globalization an unstoppable historical trend. Putin is has denounced self-reliance and told about finding markets in non-Western world. Modi's anti globalization policies are more in line with former US President Trump.
India will join Western camp
India will continue to remain a Western ally against China and will keep good relation with Russia ignoring West as long as Russia remains its chief military hardware supplier. West will gradually consume Russia's share in Indian arms market to reduce Russian influence on New Delhi. When the process will be complete India will be completely in Western camp. Till then India will remain in BRICS making the institution ineffective.
Keep BRICS+ Ready
So it is time for China and Russia to read what is coming in the future and model BRICS accordingly. China and Russia must integrate more countries from ASEAN, Middle East and Latin America like Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico into BRICS+. This is because when India will join Western camp, China and Russia can keep the institution intact. Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico together make 3.2% of global GDP which is same as that of India. So BRICS+ must be created as soon as possible.
Author: Saikat Bhattacharya
