Capital flight from India continues. Between 2019 & 2021, share of global FDI inflows to India have shrunk, from 3.4% to 2.8% and this trend will continue. Moreover, many capitalists have openly voiced their disgust at Indian state policy. The current regime of Modi is Nehru version 2 who seeks to implement a new License Raj 2.0 by removing all the competitions of the baniya  merchantiles.

To understand this more clearly, one has to first understand the Indian state. In a previous article 'Creation of Indian State', I have elaborated how the Indian state basically a formation to protect certain groups. One of them is the Gujarati, Rajasthani, Sindhi, Haryanvi, Hindu Punjabi trader-banker-merchantile castes. Indian state seeks to ensure their complete monopoly in India and also abroad if possible. Other groups are the feudal, landed, petty owner groups and the Hindustani population who dominate the politics and bureaucracy. The Indian state is a pre-capitalist state who want to prevent any modernization as growth of entrepreneur capitalist will eradicate the Indian ruling classes. That's why the economic policies of Indian state centered around close-market economy where social mobility is shunned. The Indian ruling classes are a colonial creation who are not ruling by their own capability but rather inheritance, so they are in constant fear that they will face a challenge all the time. In order to prevent this, a servile and irrational population is created. To maintain status quo, they also have curbed down productivity, growth etc. The baniya ruling classes operate via family, community centric monopoly, keeping the circulation of money and good/services among themselves and preventing everyone from entering trade, commerce, business etc. As they require hordes of cheap labor, they want to make sure that there is a continuous supply of poor, desperate people whom they can exploit easily.

The Indian left uses class politics, social justice, anti-brahmin rhetoric, feminism, etc to keep this status quo while right wing uses Hindutva, anti-Muslim rhetoric etc to do the same. Both are ultranationalist in their approach.

In my previous articles, I have elaborated India in details and showed how India remains a primitive, feral, chaotic, unproductive place and how fails to honor contracts. So combining all this it can be easily concluded that India will not be able to give return to investments.

Indian workplace runs one or many of the following criteria:

• Tribalism, community-centrism e.g.: a manager from x caste will favor people of his caste and will discriminate against others, a person from y ethnicity will favor person from that ethnicity only and treat others badly etc. This is being done regardless of productivity, efficiency etc. So the output remains low. Workplace politics also run on this basis.
• Particularly in public sector but also in private sector, quotas matter more than anything. Quotas regarding caste, gender, language etc matters more than anything.
• Work is not focused on productivity, efficiency, objective, output etc. Work is rather seen as compliance. India thinks slogging, staying late, etc is hard-work. Basically they care more about stunts than the actual thing.
• India is anti-incentive. Those who are productive are humiliated, insulted, punished while those who play workplace politics are rewarded. Bootlicking and personal relations are more rewarded than performance. Plus everyone always try to make others overwork while themselves avoiding everything. This dis-incentivizes work.
• Babudom is the main mode of operation. Those who are in management positions want to be treated like royalty and treat others like serfs. They want their subordinates to do the work while all they want is to put a seal and claim the credit.
• They are anti-investment and sees everything as expense. So they mainly focuses on cutting cost rather than investing. They expect too much without proving nothing.
• Zero professional conduct in workplaces.
• Mode of management is bullying, harassing, ragging, sadism etc. So they fail to achieve actual purpose.
• Education is mainly about social status. The archaic education focuses on creating stupid paper pushers. Concept of skilling, training is absent.

So combining all the above factors, it can be easily said that no matter how hard one tries, India cannot become productive ever. So investing there will only creates negative returns there.

Plus the state policy is about making capital flee so that the baniya ruling class is freed from competitors.

So, India and global capital have become adversaries. It's mainly political classes that pampers the Indian state.

Now, here comes the main issue. Global capital will side with China as they want to maximize the full benefit from Chinese economy while India stands at the adverse side of that objective. Moreover, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Phillipines are becoming new production centers. So they will be preferred over India.

So, in any geopolitical tussle, global capitalists will mostly take stance against India.

Global market forces and supply chain dynamics will work against India as neither it can produce cheap goods for itself nor can it acquire cheap goods from global market as Chinese economy is moderating and USA & China-Russia are in geopolitical competition resulting in distortion of global supply chain. So living standards will fall and more economic crisis like stagflation will come.

India's geopolitical ambitions particularly against China will not be taken lightly by global capital too as it will disrupt their supply chain.

So in future, expect more tussle in future between the Indian state and global capital.

Many will also seek to restructure and reengineer India into their own mould and for that they will nurture political forces necessary for it. And yes, on this matter they will ally with China.

Author: Purandhar Khilji